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Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT

Email-ID 87761
Date 2010-02-19 14:53:11

Thank you


In responce to your question of the antartica investment plans, I can tell
you that those figures ($100 mill) are not true (could you tell me from
what source do they come from?)
The Navy reopened its main Base with some upgrading, but with just a few
millions. The Army has done something a bit more and the Air force is
mainly upgrading its landing field. The sum of all is not near the 100
millions, unless maybe you add salaries and operation. As you might know,
our country claims part of the Antartica as national territory, but that’s
another story.

Thank you for your info on Iran. I personnaly think that Iran wants to be
a mayor actor in the region and for that its desire to enter the “Atomic
Club” more than just simply “wipe out” Israel.

If you plan to come to Chile, I can help you meet with interesting people,
so let me know.

I don’t know what part of the States you work in but in this part of the
world is summer and most of the country are at the beach on holidays
Have a great weekend



—– Original Message —–
From: Reva Bhalla
To: Felipe Carvajal
Sent: Thursday, February 18, 2010 12:56 PM
Subject: Hello from DC
RAdm Carvajal,
Thank you so much for your response. I would be more than happy to
exchange info on Russia and Mideast. Those are my areas of expertise and
I have spent a lot of time over there. What specific questions do you
have about the nuclear program? Essentially, Iran would love to have
the nuclear deterrent and they are working toward that, but they have to
take things one step at a time. Iran knows the US doesn’t have the
appetite for another war right now, but this is crunch time for Israel.
Israel has the means of pushing the US into a military conflict in the
Persian Gulf if it wants to — only the US can manage Iran’s retaliatory
response in the Strait of Hormuz. I think we are building toward a
crisis, but the US still has a few options left to buy time and the
Iranians are experts at maneuvering around these negotiations. The
enrichment claims over the past couple weeks are overblown. They still
have big problems with their centrifuges. There are some very
interesting developments in the Levant, however, between Syria,
Hezbollah and the US/Israel, if you’re interested. Feel free to shoot
any questions my way and I’ll do my best to answer them.
It’s been a few years ago since I was in Santiago, and I miss it dearly.
I’m hoping to travel there again soon within the next year. I’m very
excited to have the opportunity now to immerse myself in LatAm. It’s
funny how many similarities I can see between a country like Venezuela
and Syria. Chile, however, really strikes my interest. It is one
country in the region that can pursue a more independent foreign policy.
This is why the Antarctica story caught my attention. I appreciate you
investigating the details of the matter and verifying the amount of
money alloted for this project. I agree this is different from the
Arctic sea treaty, but I must ask… why is Chile focusing on this now?
There’s believed to be a great deal of resources in the area and
exploration is banned until at least 2046 I believe unless another
provision is added to the treaty. What’s Chile’s strategic interest in
going forth with this Antarctica investment plan? Would love to hear
your view on this.
Again, I’m very pleased to make your acquaintance. Look forward to your
All the best,
On Feb 17, 2010, at 12:39 PM, Felipe Carvajal wrote:

Hello Reva

Thank you for your mail. Indeed I have kept in touch with Karen with
many topics of this part of the world. In refence to your question I
can tell you that the Chilean Navy and Army have in the last past
years put some money to upgrade their bases in Antartica. In the case
of the navy base, it was closed for a few years and recently put back
into operation.
I will investigate further more in the amounts you mention (U$ 100 M)
to see if the info is totaly correct and if so into what.
I don’t agree in your opinion of it being to secure exploration
rights. As you know the Antartic Treaty is totally diferent to what’s
happening in the Artic sea (no similar treaty) in which Russia Canada
Norway and USA have some geopolitical and economical appetites now
that it’s rapidly melting and explotation of natural gas and oil will
be economically feasible.

I am very interested in Russia growing sphere of influence and also,
what’s happening in the middle east, especially with Iran’s nuclear
program. I have some thoughts about the real purpose of it and would
like to hear your opinion as an expert in that area.

Best regards

RAdm Felipe Carvajal

—– Original Message —–
From: Reva Bhalla
Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2010 12:32 AM
Subject: Saludos
Contraalmirante Carvallo,
It is a pleasure to meet you. My colleague at STRATFOR, Karen
Hooper, said she was in touch with you some time ago. I am shifting
from my usual AOR in the Mideast and South Asia to Latin America,
and am getting myself grounded in the region.
I came across one issue in particular this week that I would really
like to ask your opinion on. I saw how Chile is investing $100
million in upgrading and expanding their facilities in Antarctica.
This to me seems like Chile may be pushing the limits of the
Antarctica treaty and bolstering its claim to the area in hopes of
securing exploration rights in the future. With Argentina so
internally distracted, now seems like a good time.
If you have any thoughts on this, I would love to hear it. I’m
pleased to hear you are a reader of STRATFOR and hope to keep in
All the best,
Reva Bhalla
Director of Analysis
+1 (512) 699-8385

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